SM Lee Hsien Loong at the Dialogue With NTUC and Union Leaders (Apr 2025)

Good evening brothers and sisters. Thank you for the very, very warm welcome. I did not come to make an announcement; I came to do a dialogue with everybody. I am very glad to do this. We hold these regularly, particularly after Budgets. But tonight, I would like to talk more about what is happening in the world; and what we need to do as a country.

I will start with the Budget. Budget 2025 was the record budget for Singapore. Biggest ever – $143 billion – and it was a comprehensive budget which delivered support where it was most needed. Support for the cost of living, which is very much on people’s minds – CDC vouchers for households, U-Save and S&CC rebates, LifeSG credits for children, and this year being SG60 year, SG60 Vouchers for every adult, $600, or if you have enough white hair, $800. For workers we have enhancements to skills upgrading. SkillsFuture Level-Up Programme, more comprehensive training allowance, and also allowances to help you defray your expenses, even for people on part-time programmes. We have support for businesses and SMEs. Cost relief through grants and rebates, support for the companies to upskill their workforces. And we invested in our growth engines – AI, infrastructure, and in clean energy, for example Climate Vouchers to buy more energy efficient air-conditioners, washing machines, ovens, what have you. So, it was a comprehensive and robust package.

And it was generous for a reason. Because we could see clouds on the horizon. Because we could see that storms were brewing and we wanted to make sure that we were prepared for unexpected things which would happen. We knew what was going on in the Middle East. We could see US-China tensions. We could see the uncertainties in Europe. And most recently of course we could all see what was happening with the new administration in the US under President Trump. Many new policies, fundamental re-thinking of approaches, and we were not sure what new surprises we would expect. And therefore, we prepared a budget, a package, which would be enough. If something goes not quite right, everybody is looked after.

Liberation Day

So, when Liberation Day came, not on the 1st of May, but on the 2nd of April, that was not a complete surprise to us. Because Trump had signalled very clearly, and over many years, that he wanted to do tariffs and he wanted to equalise America’s trade deficit. He believed in tariffs since he was a young man. He had said during this campaign repeatedly that when he comes in, he was going to put tariffs on everybody; it was the most beautiful word in the vocabulary. The first time he was President, eight, nine years ago, he had imposed some tariffs. So, that he was going to do something was not a surprise. But even then, what happened on Liberation Day was more drastic than expected. In fact, it is the biggest shock that the global trading system has ever faced. The stock markets plunged. I think even the bond markets moved in America – interest rates went up, bond prices came down.

For now, there is a 90-day postponement on what Trump calls the "reciprocal tariffs". He has put in some exclusions for Chinese smartphones, laptops, and chips. And so for the time-being, there is a reprieve. But tariffs on all the countries – 10% – that is non-negotiable, and that is in force and happened already. So postponing 90 days sounds like you have got 90 days of reprieve. But actually, during this 90 days, it is not just the tariffs which have been postponed. Because with this thing hanging over you, waiting, not sure if it is going to come or not come, everything else goes into limbo. Because what happens after 90 days? We know that what the US administration wants, is to eliminate the US trade deficit. They want to rebuild manufacturing in the US, bring the jobs back. And they want to do this not only across the board, to balance with the whole world, but they want to do this country-by-country – with China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Vietnam. Not with Singapore. Why? Because America has a surplus with Singapore - that is all right. If America has a deficit with Singapore, we will be there, high on the list too. It is the way they are thinking about their problems.

So this is the fundamental belief, a very deep motivation. Trump believes it, his team believes it. And these are goals which are going to be very difficult to achieve. So, we must expect him to continue to pursue this objective, and when he makes moves but the moves have not delivered results, I think the conclusion will not be to leave off, but to continue to do more moves and to take further strong measures. So we can expect to see further steps taken by the Americans over time. And that is going to have very major consequences for many countries, including Singapore. So we are here now, steps have been taken, steps yet to come, more uncertainties to come. We are not where we were before this new Administration took office, or before the 2nd of April. The world is in a new phase.

US-China

One of the biggest problems in trade and arising from this tariff package is the damage to US-China relations. America has postponed the tariffs against other countries but has not postponed against China. The tariff war between America and China has already begun. First round, America put 20% on, China responded with selected products. Then America came back again. Went back and forth with China. Now US levies on China are 145% and the Chinese – you do this to me, I do this to you – The Chinese do to US imports, US sales to China, 125%. So, it has reached the level where the number does not matter anymore. It can be 100%, it can be 200%, it can be 300%. How much business is going to be done? Probably, almost none, because it is impossible.

And it does not stop with such tariff items. It goes beyond tariffs. For example, China has restricted rare earth exports. What are rare earths? They are raw materials which you need to make all kinds of electronics equipment, and China is a major exporter. If you do not get it from China, it is very difficult to get it from other places. So China says, “You do this to me, I will respond. I will restrict rare earth exports. And if you do not want me to sell you goods, okay. I will not buy your goods is one thing, but I will also restrict imports of Hollywood films.” Films are not goods, because films you just stream over, it is services. But never mind, I will restrict that. I will not watch Disney, I will watch Ne Zha 2.

So effectively, the bilateral trade is going to get killed. And why? Because the businesses just cannot do it. If the tariff is five percent, 10%, maybe even 15%, okay I am selling it to you, let’s cham siong. You take 5%, I take 10%, we squeeze our belts a little bit – my profit a bit less, your cost a bit higher, okay, let us try to stay calm and carry on. But when it is 150%, 200%, and you do not know what is going to happen tomorrow or day after, then you cannot stay calm and carry on. You must stay calm, and then you may have to decide to go into a different business or to go out of business. And that means entire businesses and trade flows are going to stop.

And it would not end with trade, because if I am quarrelling with you on such a serious matter, it is very difficult for me to cooperate with you on other equally serious things. So, for example, the Americans want China to cooperate on restricting fentanyl, because the materials to make fentanyl come from China; somehow they go to Mexico and other places, they are made into fentanyl, then smuggled into the US. And America wants China to stop making the precursor chemicals. But China says, well, why should I try very hard? So this is going to escalate, and there will be far reaching consequences for US-China relations.

This is not a new problem, actually. It is not a problem which started with this President. It is a problem which has been growing for quite a number of years. The attitudes changed when Obama became President. Over time, they hardened. So it is Democrats as well as Republicans. We say that the Americans are divided. But on China, the Americans are united. They have a strong consensus that China is a pacing challenge, and they have to take China very seriously and actively. They are trying very hard to stay ahead of China and to prevent China from overtaking them. At the same time, the Chinese say, "I am growing, I am developing. I want to take my rightful place in the world. Who is going to stop me?" So, this is a fundamental contradiction. The Americans say, "I want to make sure that you do not overtake me". The Chinese say, "I have a right to develop". We can talk about win-win, but when you cast it like that, there is a fundamental contradiction, and it is not going to be easily resolved. The latest trade war has worsened it. And it is going to be a serious problem for the two countries and also for the world.

So what do we do about it? Some people say, "Do not get excited, do not overblow the issue. We have weathered bigger storms before. We have not failed. We should take these events in our own stride." And it is true, we should not get excited. We should take it in our own stride. But we do need to be concerned and to understand what is happening and what this means for us. Because this time, something important is different.

We have gone through many crises before over the years. We have gone through the Global Financial Crisis, before that, Asian financial crisis. We had SARS. Most recently, we have had COVID-19. And every now and again something happens in the world, we have carried along, and we have to batten down our hatches and see it through. And every time we have succeeded, so we have confidence. But one important thing which you must understand is that every time that happened, we had two big things going in our favour. One, within Singapore, we were doing the right thing. We could get united. We could get our act together. We could respond with the right policies, even painful ones. And we could get the system, get ourselves sorted out. Two, every time we got into trouble last time, Singapore was part of a working global economic system, trading system. And that trading system promoted free flow of trade, free flow of investments; it encouraged MNCs to look for places to do business. We were efficient. We were doing well. We came out from trouble, we plugged back in. We could resume growing, resume developing, resume succeeding. So every time you run into trouble, you come up, you plug it, you grow it. Next time there is trouble, you come out, the system is still there.

It is a global financial system, the WTO system. And that was what helped us. What was it about that system which helped us? It gave countries big and small a level playing field. Whether you are a big country or a small country, under the WTO system, the rules are the same, your access is the same. What do I mean? Let's say between countries. We trade, right? Sometimes we have tariffs, sometimes we have other restrictions. You are allowed to do that, but you may not discriminate between your partners, big ones and small ones. Let us take an example, if the EU raises tariffs on cars from Japan. In order to protect European cars, you raise tariffs on Nissan or Toyota, then you must charge the same tariff on cars from every other country; Chinese cars, Korean cars, Indian cars, American cars. You have to treat them the same. If Singapore had cars to export, Singapore would also be charged the same tariffs.

On the other hand, if we give a concession to a country – for example, if Australia says, “I allow rice from India to be sold duty-free”, then they have to do the same for rice from all other countries: Japanese rice, Chinese rice, Vietnamese rice, and American rice. Everybody has to come in also duty-free. It has to be a level playing field. You can protect yourself, but you cannot discriminate between your partners. And that is called MFN - Most Favoured Nation. It sounds like if you are MFN, that you get some special favour – “most favoured” – but actually most favoured just means equal favour, means you do not get more than anybody else, and you do not get less than anybody else. And it is a level playing field for countries big and small. But what it means is that for small countries, who have very little bargaining power, because the rules are like that, so we enjoy the same market access which big countries enjoy, and we benefit from the bargaining power of bigger countries. And therefore, we can get access, and therefore we can get investments, and therefore we can get jobs. So, MFN is critical to Singapore.

What is different this time is that the US does not want MFN. They want to dismantle the system. They want to replace MFN with reciprocal tariffs, meaning I would not treat everybody equally. I want to treat each person, each partner, one-on-one. I deal with you, you deal with me. What you give me, I give you, at least in principle. When you bargain, of course, I would like you to give me a little bit more, and therefore, exploit America's bargaining power. Because they are big – one quarter of the world’s GDP, one seventh of total goods trade in the world. “Why treat everybody equally? They do not have the cards.” To borrow some famous words. Why not we treat this one-on-one, like arm wrestling. Let's see who has got more biceps, who has got a stronger arm, and we will see who is stronger. We will get more that way. It is a fundamentally different kind of world which the US is looking for and pushing for. And the approach is not win-win, but win-lose. In other words, the US wants to do well for themselves. They really do not mind whether the other countries do well for themselves. And President Trump recently is on record saying, “If we had made a really fair deal and a good deal for the United States, not a good deal for the others, this is America first. It is now America first.”

So this has very major implications for Singapore, very major implications for the world.

Why this is bad for the world

What does it mean for the world?

First, you are going to have different rules for different countries. Small countries will suffer because they have no bargaining power. But even big countries will not do well because there is going to be a lot of confusion, a lot of uncertainties, a lot of differences in the rules. And far fewer opportunities to trade, to invest, to do business together.

Second, the tariffs – whether they are equal or unequal – and in this case, they will become unequal – will choke off trade, will raise costs, and will dampen growth. In the 2000s, at the beginning of the millennium, the US tariffs were on average at about one percent. So basically, if you can sell to the US, your goods can enter the US almost duty-free. There are some exceptions like trucks – they charge a lot. Other things like sugar, where they are restricted, they are sensitive – they have farmers to protect – or ethanol. But across the board, one percent. They were the anchor of the global trading system. Now, already they are at about 10%, at a level which has not been there for 80 years. It is very high. It is higher than any other developed country.

And if in 90 days’ time, the rest of the reciprocal tariffs come in and they go to 30, 40, or sometimes nearly 50%, then the US tariffs will be even higher than they were before the war, during the Great Depression, when the US pushed the tariffs right up. And that worsened the Depression for the US and for the world. Furthermore, this is not the end of the story, because tariffs in the bundle so far have not counted two products – pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors may have been feeling happy for a short while, but America has made it very clear it is coming soon, akan datang. And that will potentially hit Singapore quite hard, because pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are a significant part of our economy. So that is from the immediate impact of the American tariffs.

But when other countries retaliate, then you must expect back and forth, tit-for-tat. It has happened with China. It will happen with other countries. Then it will cause a downward spiral and the impact will be even worse. Canada has already retaliated. The EU has also retaliated, quite carefully, because they are a bit fearful. They have done Harley-Davidson, because that is one of the iconic American products. But they have not put high tariffs on whiskey, bourbon. Why? Because the Americans say, “You do bourbon, I am going to hit French wine, German wine, champagne”. So both sides have held off for now – they can drink to that. But that is a small item. As the quarrel goes on, it will grow bigger, and the impact will be worse. And the Chinese side has gone right to the end. And with the other countries you can head in that direction too. And that will do a lot of harm.

Fourth, when you have tariffs and we say, "Well that is going to dampen growth and things are going to slow down and there will be fewer upsides", it is not just dampening growth. It is going to be very disruptive. If dampened growth means volume goes down, profits go down, maybe bonuses go down; well, I tighten my belt, I still got my job, both of us. Maybe over time, I can go and find another job. But if the supply chains are disrupted, if you get hit by 100% tariffs – companies in China are making Christmas trees for America for Christmas; 150% tariff – Christmas is not going to come. If you have got such a tariff on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors in Singapore, are we going to have Christmas or not? What it means is that industries can be disrupted. Businesses can be totally turned upside down. You may have the whole business model suddenly disappear and not just not hiring more people, but you may find yourself all of a sudden with a lot of surplus workers. How to look after them? And that can very quickly lead to recession – recession in the US itself, and impact elsewhere too. This is going to be a burden on businesses and consumers, on the global economy.

Fifth, with all these new tariffs – this is something which is going to last a very long time. It is not going to go away soon, because once you put in a tariff, once you protect your market, it is very difficult to take it away. People get used to it. Some companies may invest. You put in a tariff, you say, "Come invest in America". So I invest in America. It is really not competitive. You want to build Christmas trees in the US – it is very expensive, where to find workers? But after you have got the tariff and after the Christmas tree factory has come up, then you want to undo it. The factory says, “I am going to die, please help me". So you cannot undo it anymore. It is there. It is a reality. And furthermore, if you undo it, the party in opposition will say "But you see the Chinese have their tariffs still on, why am I disarming myself?” You have to negotiate with them – a further long process.

To go from where the Americans were, before the war, when they had high tariffs, to where they were by 2000 when the tariffs were one percent, nearly zero, that was a nearly 80-year process, gradually bringing things down. So now, if the tariffs go up, they stay up for a while. If you want to bring them back down, I think that is going to be a long process. It is not going to disappear. So that is going to be a long problem.

Impact on us, Singapore?

What is the impact on us? Immediately, the impact on us is – growth. This year, we were hoping for one to three percent growth. That was what we announced around Budget time. But with all this uncertainty in the world, MTI has revised the forecast. They have just put up the new forecast today; they put it down to zero to two percent. Do you know for sure? No. Could it be zero? Possible. Can it be negative? Will we have a recession this year? When we look at the numbers, we do not think so, but it could happen. And it could happen because, actually, you really do not know. You are not looking at whether consumers are ordering, whether demand is good, whether your product is improving, whether everyone is prospering. If I take an optimistic view – let's invest first. I think if I am fast, I will get something. What you do not know is what new policies are going to come. What are other countries going to do? Then, how will America re-retaliate? And you ask me to guess? It is impossible. So the uncertainty is very high, and is a problem, a problem in the short term. And as I explained earlier, in the medium to long term. So we must expect lower growth this year, a recession somewhere down the road, maybe not this year, but quite possibly at some point. And over the medium term, 5, 10 years, this is going to be a less friendly world that we are in.

So the difference between this time and previous crises is: previously you come out, you can come out into a world which is working and we fit in, we work again. This time, we are okay, but the world is not going to be okay, and we have to do our best to make sure that we look after ourselves in this much less hospitable world.

That is just on the economic side. On the geopolitical side, I do not want to go and talk a lot about it tonight, but you know about US-China. We know about the problems which are going to be worsened because of the trade war. So we must expect more US-China tensions, and therefore a less tranquil, less stable region. There will be more demands on us to work very hard, to be friends with both, and to find our own way forward without getting into trouble.

I think for Singapore, it means some very serious implications. This time is different, and we have to understand that, even as we think what we can do about it.

So, what can we do about it? I think there are two areas where you have to think about – one internationally and the other one domestically.

Singapore’s response – International

Internationally – I think we have to continue to support free trade, multilateralism, the WTO. To try to keep the system going and not have it collapse, even though the US is abandoning the rules. The US is the biggest economy. They come out, it has a significant impact on the rest of the world. But the rest of the world is still there, and if we can work together, I think we have a fair shot at keeping the system up.

I give you an example of how this can be done. You will have heard of the TPP – the Trans-Pacific Partnership. You do not need to know the details, but basically, 12 countries got together to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement. Singapore had some part to play, to get this process started right at the beginning. One of those countries was the US. In fact, President Obama was very active in pushing the negotiations and trying to get a deal on the TPP, and he succeeded. But the last step was to get the deal ratified in Congress, then America is in. He could not do that. He left it to his successor. He hoped that it would be Hillary. Hillary said, “No, I repudiate this”, although she was also involved. And anyway, Hillary lost, and Mr Trump won. And Mr Trump had said, “If I come in, I'm going to kill it on Day One”. When he was sworn in on the 20th of January, 2017, on day one, he killed the TPP. But fortunately, the TPP did not die, because there were still 11 members, other than the US. Japan was still there, and Mr Shinzo Abe was Prime Minister of Japan. He exercised leadership, he rallied the other countries, he renegotiated the deal so as to exclude all the parts where we had accommodated American interests, and saved the rest of the deal. And he got the other 11 countries together, and we all signed, and enough ratified.

We now have the CPTPP. America leaves, the game can still carry on. And in the same way, in the global trading system, America does not want to play by the rules anymore. But the other countries, if we can maintain the system as we trade with each other, I think that is important, and that would be very valuable to countries like Singapore. So we will work with other countries to try and make that happen. That is the first thing we can do.

The second thing we can do is to promote trade arrangements with like-minded partners. For example, we have the ASEAN group. We have an ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. The EU is a major partner, and we can do business with the EU. ASEAN can have an FTA with the EU, negotiate with them, expand the ink blot for free trade. Create more avenues for us to cooperate, win-win with one another. And Singapore is pushing for that. In fact, the ASEAN trade ministers met, and I think they will be working at this and working with other partners too.

The CPTPP, that is valuable too. That can also grow. UK joined the CPTPP. They need to – they had left the EU, they had no partners, no alternative. They came in but we welcomed them. But the EU, looking around for partners, says, “How about EU and CPTPP, we get together? One in the Asia Pacific, including Canada and Mexico and Peru and Chile, and the other one in Europe. And we can get together for something valuable.” The CPTPP members are keen, the European Commission President von der Leyen, she is keen. I hope that if we push that, we can get something. This is one of those situations where you want momentum. If you are sitting there doing nothing, something will happen to you. If you are standing up and pushing something, you may make more progress, you may make less progress, but you will make some progress and you will be better off than where you are. And this is an area where we need to make progress and Singapore will help to push.

Thirdly, externally we need to do more with our ASEAN partners within ASEAN. We have an FTA as I said, but you can do a lot more. And I hope that with this additional impetus, we can do more of that. For example, Singapore and Malaysia we are talking about the Johor-Singapore SEZ. In Johor, companies can go there, they can have favourable terms and Singapore companies can prosper. Malaysian business will benefit, Malaysia will benefit, and foreign companies can be there and be in Singapore and therefore they also can benefit. And in the process, Singapore and Malaysia, we work closer together, that is good. When that happened, there were reports in the Indonesian newspapers to say, “Well, Singapore and Malaysia are doing an SEZ, what is Singapore doing with Indonesia?” And the answer is, we are doing things with Indonesia but I think there is a certain amount of competition, because they see us as being able to add value. And I hope that with this pressure within ASEAN, we will do more. So internationally, globally, with WTO – try and keep the system intact. Big partners between trading groups can come together and form bigger blocs. Within ASEAN, try to make ASEAN stronger, more relevant. And Singapore, we are small, but our trade is not small. I think we have some contribution to make.

Singapore’s response – Domestic

We have to respond to the new situation domestically. And I will say it in three ways. First in terms of practical support, second in terms of psychological preparation and third, politically. In terms of practical support, we need to help households, we need to help businesses, and we need to keep the economy growing. To help households, I think you know we have a lot of things. On cost of living certainly it is the first big item. Typical households this year would be getting around $4,000 in various forms of assistance. We are helping workers who are displaced, for example with the Jobseeker Support Scheme. We designed this expecting dislocation, expecting people to be displaced and this is what we will need, if in fact the tariffs dislocate supply chains and there are significant disruptions to our industries. Then the workers who are displaced will have the Jobseeker Support Scheme to give them support, to tide over the period when they are out of a job, looking for a new job, or training for a new job. We will have support for re-skilling. I talked about that earlier. Overall, I would say the budget package we have is enough for now, but if the situation gets a lot worse, we will do more and I can assure you, we are able to do more.

We have to help the businesses, too. We have set up the Economic Resilience Taskforce under DPM Gan Kim Yong in order to navigate the uncertainties; and to help businesses transform themselves. So it is not just to deal with immediate problems, it is also to deal with the longer term. Take this opportunity of the immediate challenge, to get ourselves prepared to be more competitive in the long term. NTUC is going to be part of this Taskforce, looking at how best to support workers through this.

Secondly, I think we need to be psychologically prepared. We need to be prepared for a more troubled world. You must know that bad weather is coming. But at the same time, we can take comfort knowing that other countries are also facing similar challenges, and Singapore is readier than most of them to deal with this challenge. Readier because we have the plans, we have the resolve, we have the experience, we have the resources, we have the unity. We are ready to do this, and we can do this together.

One of the important things which we must do if we are going to go through this together, is to look at fault lines, and stresses and strains which will build up in our society. Because if you want to go in and say, “Let’s be united,” it is not just wearing the same t-shirt. It is making sure we look after one another, take care of one another. Making sure that when fault lines come up, people who are having greater difficulties, people who may be left behind, people who are dislocated – they do not feel left out, they do not feel alone. They know that others care for them, Singapore cares for them. We will help you – you help yourself, we work at it together. We are in this together. I think that is a very important mindset which we must have during a crisis, going into a crisis, which we are able to do.

It is a problem which in America has led to the pressures and the grievances and dissatisfaction, which have led the government to pursue all these very drastic policies. Because they have certain parts of America which have been left behind, industries all doing badly. They call it the Rust Belt. These are places where the industries have all done badly and the workers have no jobs, and populations are left out. The blue-collar workers in America, their jobs across the country have not done well, their incomes have not done well. Their lives have been blighted by drugs, by unemployment, by crime. Left behind, they voted for a drastic change and they want to break the system, they want a different world.

We must never allow our population or some parts of our population to feel like that. We are going to have stresses and strains too, because there will be retrenchments if there is a recession elsewhere, there will be dislocation if supply lines are interrupted. There is going to be dislocation also if technology comes and we are not prepared for it. If AI comes, if robotics come on a big scale and your jobs are taken away or transformed and you cannot do the new job, you are out of a job, it is no comfort to say that GDP has gone up, but my life is not better. So far, we have prevented that from happening in Singapore. I think in this situation, we must do double to make sure it does not happen.

If you can do all that – look after the households, look after the physical needs, make sure we psychologically prepared – then we can also address the political issue, which is to unite as one Singapore team, working closely with the government. And you need to have a good government, an effective government, a strong government, in order to take care of Singapore. And it has to be strong domestically, in order to be strong internationally.

Let me explain this. I think when you say on foreign policy, Singapore must speak with one voice, I think everybody will agree. Even the opposition agrees. And when you go overseas in a parliamentary delegation, people from different parties, we join the same parliamentary delegation, and we go representing Singapore. But the opposition goes one further. They say, well, overseas, we stand together. Domestically, let’s challenge. Now, that is a problem. Why is that a problem? I tell you, I have been attending international conferences for 20-something years – in fact, for 30, 40, years, but last 20 years at PM. Now, fortunately, PM Wong is doing it. But let me tell you my experience from these conferences. We meet each other regularly, because the conferences happen every year, every other year. This time I see you, maybe next time I see your successor. And in some countries, every time I go to a conference, I see a new PM. Sometimes, I see the PM, I look at his delegation, I see some of the faces there, I read the newspapers, I know that some of those people are hoping to be the next PM. And sometimes it turns out so. So when you meet each other, I assess you, you assess me. I will ask myself, “I am talking to you now. Your Excellency, Prime Minister, yes, sir.” Will you still be here in five years’ time? Will your policy still be here in five years’ time? Can I do business with you, commit and we do something, make a plan? To build a factory may take two, three years. To breakeven on the factory may take 10, 20 years. If you are not going to be here, can I make a deal? So I assess them. Do you think they assess me? Of course! They will see what is happening. They will have their embassies here writing reports. And if you have different views in Singapore, embassies say, well, this PM makes very good speeches, but actually he has a lot of political problems at home. When you meet them, you will be received with the courtesies, but I think they are not carrying the same weight, and you will not be able to defend and advance Singapore's interests in this state.

On the other hand, if they know you are on top of your situation at home, if they know you have strong support, good support, they know you are in touch with your population and you have got your domestic issues well under control, then they take you seriously. In fact, they will ask you, “By the way, your healthcare system I hear is not bad, tell me how you do it.” Or, it has happened to me once, we were discussing corruption. This was quite early in one of my first APEC meetings as PM and one of the big countries said to me, “Singapore, tell us how you combat corruption.” They know about us. They want to know how it works. Makes a big difference.

Therefore, to be effective internationally, to be strong at all, you have to be united domestically. And when people say, Singapore is a safe haven. In an uncertain world, in Singapore, you have security, you have safety. That is why people want to put family offices here. That is why people want to deposit money here. That is why people have confidence and put factories worth billions of dollars here, which take 20, 30 years to pay back, because of Singapore being a safe haven. And one big part of that safe haven, one big factor, is stable politics, good politics.

I know that many Singaporeans want more opposition and if you ask why, they will say, well, we would like a stronger check and balance on the PAP. And I would say the opposition has a role to play in our democratic system. It is here to stay. Opposition MPs are never going to disappear from Parliament. I accept this. That is the way democracies work. We started in a very unusual position with almost overwhelming PAP presence in Parliament, almost zero opposition. And now there is significant opposition, and I do not think that is ever going to change, and we will work with this.

But Singapore also needs an effective system of government which is led by a good and capable ruling party, and that depends on elections delivering outcomes which work for Singapore. And what are outcomes which work for Singapore? They are when, after the election, the country is able to generate a leadership which is capable, which is committed, which is honest, which can run a competent and efficient, effective government. Defend our place in the world and lead Singapore safely through crisis.

That is ultimately what elections are about; to choose who is to lead the country and to make sure that the team which can lead the country can do so well. In fact, ideally the team which can lead the country most successfully and most effectively. And part of the system is you have the ruling party and you have the opposition party. You have ruling MPs and opposition MPs. But if voters keep on electing more opposition MPs, even when the government is doing a good job, then beyond a point, it must weaken the government's ability to govern, to form the best possible team for Singapore and to run this country the way Singaporeans have come to expect. It must be so. Some people say the civil service is marvellous, you do not need a good minister. Anybody can be the minister. The Permanent Secretary would do the work, you just sit there and say yes or no. It is like saying you do not need a good Sec-Gen; the unions are fine, Sec-Gen just sits there and says, "Everything is good". Really? When you work in a company, is that how it works? If you see a company where the boss is doing that sort of thing, do you think good people are still going to be in that company? Or they will say, "This place has no hope, better go and work for a better boss". To run a good team, you need a good leader. And if you do not have a good leader, a good team will melt away. And we need to have that kind of leadership, that kind of quality, in order for Singapore to perform and to succeed the way it deserves to.

I give you an example – GE 2020, during COVID-19. When COVID-19 came, we were about a year away from elections. But when the pandemic started to get serious, I decided to call elections as soon as practicable. Some people said, “No, put it off as late as possible.” Even declare an emergency and postpone it till after COVID-19. I said, "No, you go now". Circuit Breaker could not be helped – we had to deal with an immediate problem. Once that was done, I said, "Let us call an early General Election; get a new team elected with a fresh full mandate. We are going to have a lot of challenges. We are going to have make a lot of difficult decisions. People are going to go through a lot of dislocation and hardship. We must have our minds focused on fighting COVID-19, and we cannot do that if every day I want to make a new COVID-19 policy, I have to ask myself, should I do this before or after the election?" Singaporeans will die, literally. So we went, we got a good mandate, and thereafter we focused on fighting COVID-19 as one nation, and I am relieved to say, not unsuccessfully. And it was because we were able to unite and put our team together and be able to focus on solving problems.

It was a good result, but unfortunately, we lost Sengkang GRC and in the process, we lost Brother Ng Chee Meng as a candidate. It was a setback for the Labour Movement. But fortunately, Brother Chee Meng had the staying power, the gumption, to continue serving as Sec-Gen, and fortunately the Labour Movement continued to support him. It also supported the other leaders on the team – the PAP MPs: Heng Chee How, Desmond Tan, Patrick Tay, Desmond Choo as well as stalwart union leaders like Sister Thana, Sister Mary, and many others on the Central Committee and in the unions.

And therefore, during the pandemic, the Labour Movement was well-led, and it could be a good partner to the Government, and it played a key role. It saved jobs, it pushed for skills upgrading. It administered SIRS – Self-Employed Person Income Relief Scheme. So that it was not just helping union members or bargainable employees, but workers of Singapore, including self-employed workers. And it looked beyond the pandemic, to set-up Company Training Committees (CTCs) to support businesses in upskilling. Turned out to be a very successful project. And so this year in the budget, we put another $200 million of support, because you had run out of money. But we were very happy that it had overfulfilled your plan and it was a good programme, so we will support it, do more.

Therefore, NTUC was able to help us bounce back stronger from COVID-19. This is what tripartism means – the Government, unions, employers working together. In fact, this is what the symbiotic relationship between PAP and NTUC can do – for workers and for Singapore. And that is why PM Lawrence Wong and his 4G team have committed to strengthen tripartism and the symbiotic partnership. I look forward to you supporting this team in this next General Election, whenever it is called. And especially supporting the labour leaders and PAP union advisors in the team.

Conclusion

This evening has been a sober speech but I thought it was my duty to come, and talk to you directly, candidly, honestly, and share with you things as they are.

It is a lesson I learned at the beginning of my political journey, when I first became a minister, and we were dealing with an economic recession, a severe recession in 1985 and we had to cut CPF, employer CPF by 15 percentage points. Those of you old enough will remember what a shock and what a difficult decision that was. But we were able to carry it because the union members had confidence in their leaders at that time. Brother Ong Teng Cheong was Sec-Gen. And the government ministers – Teng Cheong himself, I, Goh Chok Tong, Lim Boon Heng who was Deputy Sec-Gen then – we went in person, talked to the union leaders, talked to the workers, session after session, to get them to understand what was at stake, and to get them to support policies which would get us out of the difficulty. And fortunately, they believed us. They had trust in us. They took the advice, they accepted their medicine, and Singapore recovered much faster than expected. And therefore, whenever I am confronted with a crisis like this or a situation like this, my immediate instinct is to go, "Let’s talk, understand what is this about. What can we do together? How to dig out of the hole, not dig yourself deeper and deeper." So, I think that we can go into battle with confidence. We have the resources, we have the experience – we are ready. We have done it before, and we will show the world that we can do it again.

The upcoming elections will be crucial. It is a changed world. We have a fresh team in charge, and we will have a new resolve to tackle challenges, and to emerge stronger.

PM Lawrence Wong is leading the PAP into elections for the first time, seeking his own mandate to take Singapore forward – forward through this crisis, forward with their plans, forward for our future.

I hope Singaporeans understand what is happening, what is at stake, and what we must do to secure our future together. Thank you.

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