Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s remarks for CNN 30th anniversary event on 20 October 2010 at the St Regis Hotel

Distinguished guests,
Ladies and gentlemen, 

First, may I congratulate CNN on its 30th Anniversary.  The world has changed many times in the last 30 years in Asia and around the world and CNN has been there almost every time to cover the events. 

Thirty years ago, in 1980, the outlook for Asia was positive, but it was still a relatively small story.  There was a story of four little dragons – South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore – which were thriving and which, in due course, caused the rest of the region to follow.  In the mid-80s, the other Asean economies followed as they adopted market-oriented policies.  In Indonesia, this happened under President Suharto.  In Malaysia, it happened under Dr Mahathir, the Prime Minister, and in Vietnam, a little bit later, under its existing regime after it withdrew from Cambodia and the war in Cambodia ended. 

But the biggest story was to come and that was China.  In 1978, Deng Xiaoping launched China on a path of liberalisation and reform and so the Chinese economy began its astonishing transformation and rise over the last three decades.  The country has completely changed, the economy, of course, but also the society, and most importantly of all and profoundly, the values and mindsets of the people.  Hong Kong has been a beneficiary after its return to China in 1997, much agonized over before but peacefully done and in the past now.  But China’s growth extended way beyond Hong Kong.  It has energised the whole of Asia and it has changed the global balance. 

India is another big Asian story.  It started a little bit later, a decade later in 1990, under Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, now Prime Minister.  India's development lags China.  It started later, it is a more complicated domestic situation, a more complex society.  But India, with a younger population than China, has tremendous potential and provided it maintains its pace of reforms, then India can continue on its growth trajectory for many years to come. 

Japan, at the beginning of this period, was perhaps the most competitive economy in the world.  People wrote books about “Japan is Number One” and America worried about the emerging challenge from Japan.  But unfortunately, its economy ran into severe excesses and it has faced intractable problems ever since 1989, 1990, when the bubble economy burst.  It has faced persistent deflation and economic stagnation.  It has got profound demographic problems, an aging population and, even more so, a shrinking population, and it faces wider issues of political leadership and national morale.  But it is still an advanced economy and a world leader in many fields of technology and with stronger national leadership and stronger national spirit, it can do much more for Asia and for the world. 

The economic takeoff in Asia has been accompanied by political change.  There have been regime changes in several countries, changes from strong leaders and centralized systems to a more diverse landscape – in South Korea and Taiwan, in Indonesia after Suharto fell in the Asian crisis, or in the Philippines, from Marcos to the successors.  Western observers sometimes look at this as democratisation and progress and that, I suppose, is one way to look at it, but the reality is often very different from the Western forms and models. The Asian countries are still searching for the political system which works for them and it has to be different in each of the countries because the societies have different histories, different cultures and different geopolitical situations.  They need to find a system which fits their social values which can deliver effective and honest governments and which can provide security, jobs and prosperity for the people.  These are basic requirements and without these, whatever the elegance of the papers of the Constitution or the designs, it will not work. 

The biggest story here, of course, is China, which will evolve politically, which has already evolved considerably.  The society is changing and opening up, especially under the impact of IT and the Internet.  But the leaders resist it, try to moderate it, guide it, but fundamentally and ultimately, they acknowledge the need for change and political reform and Wen Jiabao, the Premier, particularly, has stated this regularly.  China will have to find its own way forward.  It is an ancient civilization.  It will not measure itself against Western norms.  It does not wait anxiously for the next Western report cards to be issued, but it will change. 

One great boon in Asia for the last 30 years has been that the region and the continent has generally been at peace.  It is a great blessing not to be taken for granted.  America has contributed enormously to the security and peace in Asia and today, in this environment, many regional forums for economic and security cooperation have grown and established themselves.  It is an alphabet soup -- APEC, Asean Regional Forum, the Asean Defence Ministers’ Meeting, which has now become the Asean Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus and so on and now, the latest story which may or may not hit the headlines but is significant is that America and Russia will be joining the East Asia Summit grouping.  These regional cooperation forums contribute to the stability and the regional integration and cooperation which is valuable to us all.  But even with all these forums, America continues to play a critical role in Asia and will do so for many years to come.  No other country can take its place and many Asian countries are very happy that the Obama administration has reaffirmed that the US is a Pacific power and intends to remain one.

But, of course, there are some security challenges in the region.  Korea, the peninsula, is a major flashpoint, but North Korea is not irrational.  The risk is of nuclear proliferation and the destabilization of Northeast Asia. Another major potential flashpoint is cross-strait relations, China and Taiwan.  In 1980, the PRC and Taiwan had minimal but hostile relations, but one thing which both were agreed on was that there was one China and that this problem of cross-straits was something which was to be resolved in the distant future.  Two Taiwanese Presidents -- Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian -- changed that.  They pushed for Taiwanese independence and progressively, they changed Taiwanese attitudes and the sense of identity and predictably, tensions rose and the timeframe tightened.  Under President Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT, cross-straits relations have stabilized and improved and today, Taiwanese recognize that independence is a non-starter.  America has made its position crystal-clear and Taiwan's economy is increasingly integrated with China's.  We all hope that cross-straits relations will remain stable.  It is good for both sides, it is good for the region and for the world. 

But there are other issues which arise from time to time.  For example, territorial claims which overlap one another, particularly at sea, such as over the Senkaku or the Diaoyu Islands between China and Japan, or the Spratly Islands between China and a number of Southeast Asian countries.  These problems are not going to be solved any time soon.  The tensions will flare up from time to time.  They are not likely to lead to armed conflict or war, but they will affect the broader tenor of relations and cooperation in the region and I think the sensible thing to do is for the claimants to manage the disputes peacefully in accordance with international law and particularly with UNCLOS, the Law of the Sea.  China's attitude will, of course, be critical in this, as in many other matters. 

One more threat which is new since 9-11 is extremist Islamist terrorism.  It is a worldwide problem but one of some special concern to us in Southeast Asia.  We have witnessed catastrophic incidents in Indonesia.  We have seen attempted operations in Singapore and Malaysia, thankfully prevented in time.  The regional security forces have been working closely together to contain this threat, but this again is a long-term problem.  It is not a Southeast Asian problem, it is part of a worldwide phenomenon.  In Southeast Asia, the Muslim populations, generally speaking, are moderate and peaceful and live harmoniously with non-Muslim populations in their mix.  But in a population of several hundred million, you only need 0.01 per cent to be vulnerable and led astray to have a serious problem.  The terrorists can create havoc and harm, but they cannot win.  In Southeast Asia, almost every country is multiracial and multi-religious and racial and religious moderation, tolerance and harmony are crucial to us all. 

Looking forward, I think our outlook in Asia is positive and more so than in the rest of the world.  The key will be peaceful development of China and stable relations between America and China, continuing openness of Asia to the rest of the world and progressive strengthening of the architecture of our regional cooperation. There are risks, of course, risks of military conflicts somewhere, for example, in the Middle East, risks of some global trade frictions causing the multilateral system of trade to break down or malfunction, risks which are unconventional, like a pandemic outbreak which can come from nowhere.  But barring these, our outlook is fair and we hope and will work for another 30 years of peace in Asia for all of us to grow and to prosper. There will be enough for CNN to report all the same.  Thank you very much.

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