DPM Teo Chee Hean at the RSIS-Brookings Institution Conference "Southeast Asia and the United States: A Stable Foundation in an Uncertain Environment?"

Mr Strobe Talbott,
President, Brookings Institution

Ambassador Ong Keng Yong,
Executive Deputy Chairman, S Rajaratnam School of International Studies

Ladies and Gentlemen

A warm welcome to our overseas friends, who have come to join us at this inaugural conference organised by the Brookings Institution and the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.  The relationship between Southeast Asia and the US is a long-standing, multi-faceted and evolving one. 

Since the end of the Second World War, the United States has been a stabilising influence in the Asia Pacific.  The US’ strong military presence in the region has given rise to a long period of relative peace and stability. The US has historically enjoyed a strong economic relationship with countries in the region. The openness of the US to trade, and investments from US companies have helped countries in the region to develop, flourish and prosper. Today, the US is ASEAN’s fourth-largest trading partner, and ASEAN is collectively the US’ fourth-largest trading partner, behind only Canada, China and Mexico, and ahead of Japan.

For today’s conference, I thought it would be useful to take a step back and consider a framework in which we can look at the relationship in the context of regional and global developments, to enable us to better assess the significance or impact of individual incidents, events or initiatives.

All of us would agree that most if not all countries share a common goal to build and maintain an architecture for stability, peace and growth in this region. What are some of the features of such an architecture? First, it is a multi-dimensional relationship – not just defined by strategic and defence engagements, but also economic interactions and people-to-people exchanges. Second, the interactions have to be consistent and enduring, rather than episodic to have long-term impact. Third, it has to be based on international law, and mutual respect for all countries, big and small, in order to have legitimacy and broad support.

Let me say more about each of the three dimensions, namely, economic, security, and people-to-people exchanges, that underpin such an architecture.

Economic Cooperation

First, trade and economic cooperation remains a key pillar of this regional architecture. We are all familiar with the statistics on how the Chinese economy has grown to be the second largest in the world^[1], and based on some projections will become the largest in the world surpassing the United States’ by 2030. China is also now the largest trading partner of ASEAN, Japan, Australia, Korea, and a number of other countries, and is the second largest trading partner of the US. The big story is not about which economy has become bigger, but how interdependent our economies have all become, and how we have benefitted from this greater volume of trade and investment.

The number of regional trade agreements world-wide has risen from around 70 in 1990 to more than 270 today.^[2] These regional trade agreements illustrate the degree of our interdependence: they are the building blocks that support the growth of global trade. Such agreements have helped global trade to grow by an annual average of 5% since 1990.^[3]

The successful conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) two weeks ago looks set to be a game changer. It will advance regional economic integration and establish a vast trade and investment framework covering 40% of global GDP and one-third of world trade.

Perhaps more importantly from the geopolitical perspective, the TPP will decisively set the rules of regional and global trade and economic cooperation for some time to come. It will create a web of economic interdependency and draw the Asia-Pacific closer together, rather than having the Pacific Ocean split down the middle. It is thus critical that the TPP is ratified by the US Congress – to send a clear signal of the US’s continued presence and commitment to the region.

What is important is that these trading arrangements should be inclusive and open. Some observers have labelled the TPP as a move to economically contain China, but such an outcome would be to the detriment of the region, and to all countries. On China’s part, it has expressed hope the TPP will mutually promote other regional free trade arrangements and will contribute to the development of trade and investment in the Asia Pacific.^[4] We look forward to the day when China is ready to join the TPP. China’s involvement in the TPP would be a huge plus for China, for the Asia-Pacific region, and for the world.

In the meantime, other regional platforms such as the ASEAN-China FTA and the ongoing negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership will also bring trading partners including China closer together – weaving even more threads to strengthen this regional web of economic interdependence.

Defence and Security Cooperation

Next, defence and security cooperation. Again, what we all want to achieve is not so different: All of us want peace and stability, but each one is also hedging against a situation where we might be faced with coercion, conflict or the use of force. The security dimension can be framed in terms of an arms race, or as an exercise to build blocs and alliances. Moves and countermoves can be interpreted as part of an escalatory cycle that could inadvertently precipitate a crisis. There is indeed this possibility if there is a breakdown in dialogue and trust, or if events are allowed to spiral out of control.

However, there is room for cooperation. There are common problems that affect not just individual countries, but all of us and the world. And all countries can and must work together to tackle these. There are avenues to build confidence and to create capacity to deal with these common problems.

In the defence arena, we have the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting which started in 2006, and the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus^[5] from 2010 to discuss defence and security issues with 8 of ASEAN’s dialogue partners with significant security links. The Ministers agreed to focus on five practical areas of cooperation,^[6] where we can all learn from one another, and work together to promote regional peace and stability. The ASEAN Regional Forum also helps to foster constructive dialogue on political and security issues of common interest and concern.

Maritime security is one such area. Threats to freedom of navigation along key sea lanes have a significant impact on international trade. Because sea lanes are inter-connected, a problem in one segment will quickly disrupt the flow elsewhere along the route. No country, no matter how large or powerful, can protect all the sea lanes in the world on its own. All countries have to do their part and act collectively to ensure that the sea lanes remain secure and free for navigation. For Singapore, this is critical, since trade is about three times our GDP, and most of it is carried by sea. As trade grows among countries in our region, and with the rest of the world, the security of sea lanes and their free use for navigation become increasingly important for each of our countries.

Ten years ago, would we have thought it possible that naval forces from countries including the US, European countries, Turkey, China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand, would work together in multi-national task forces to successfully combat the piracy problem in the Gulf of Aden? In our own region, more than 70,000 vessels transit annually through the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, and through the South China Sea, carrying one-third of the world’s traded goods. Since November 2006, Singapore has hosted the Information Sharing Centre for the Regional Co-operation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP). In September 2014, we welcomed the US’ accession to ReCAAP, which now has 20 Contracting Parties, including Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea, and also Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands.^[7] The US has also been helping to enhance Southeast Asia’s maritime domain awareness capabilities by increasing bilateral maritime assistance and facilitating regional coordination on maritime security issues.

Counter-terrorism is another area, where countries need to work together, pooling resources and sharing research and intelligence where useful. Violent extremism has been propagated at an alarming rate through the internet. Terrorist groups like the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, has used social media very effectively to attract new recruits. Over 90,000 messages from some 46,000 Twitter accounts are sent by ISIS supporters each day.^[8] In fact, ISIS has produced videos in Bahasa Indonesia to target new recruits from Southeast Asia, home to the largest Muslim population in the world outside of the Middle East.

Singapore has been working with the US and other international partners to counter the extremist ideology used by ISIS and other terrorist groups to recruit foreign terrorist fighters. In this regard, Singapore convened the East Asia Summit Symposium on Religious Rehabilitation and Social Reintegration in April 2015 as a platform to share best practices on de-radicalisation and religious rehabilitation. China too is faced with this threat and seeks to work with other countries in this region.

Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief is another potential area for enhanced cooperation for human security. The surge in demand for humanitarian and disaster relief after a major natural disaster such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is so high that victims in the affected countries will almost certainly benefit from additional resources and support from external sources. At that time, countries such as the US, China, India, Japan, Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Russia, all stepped forward to contribute to the relief effort in different ways.

Again, the US’ assets and capabilities including those from the military where appropriate can make an important contribution to enhancing the capabilities of ASEAN countries, given the region’s vulnerability to natural disasters. In this regard, Singapore would welcome the US as a partner in the Changi Regional HADR Coordination Centre, which was established in September 2014 to facilitate military-to-military coordination in HADR.

Territorial Disputes

Let me also speak briefly about territorial and maritime disputes in the South China Sea (SCS). This is one topic where we see a confluence of the economic and security elements. Such disputes are potential flashpoints that need to be carefully managed to prevent disruptions to regional peace and stability. They are difficult to solve if parties go for a zero-sum outcome over conflicting claims to sovereignty over a disputed feature in the sea. In fact, going for a zero-sum outcome may actually lead to a negative outcome, if a conflict were to erupt, or even if there is a continuing state of tension and risk of conflict. No one would be able to benefit from access to the potentially vast resources.

Instead, parties should aim for a positive outcome: While sovereignty is non-divisible, resource sharing is infinitely divisible. Joint development of the rich resources would allow claimants to share the wealth of the sea. This is not a novel idea. Numerous agreements for joint development or joint exploration of natural resources in areas subject to overlapping claims have been made in the region over the years, for other example in the Gulf of Thailand, involving Malaysia-Thailand, Malaysia-Vietnam and Cambodia-Thailand.

People to People Exchanges

Finally, beyond economics and security and government-to-government cooperation, there is also considerable scope to promote greater understanding and trust through the strengthening of people-to-people linkages and functional cooperation.

Over the years, the discourse for such exchanges has shifted from one based on a clash of ideologies, to one which is based more on how best to achieve good practical human development outcomes.

Over the years, the US has contributed to many such people-to-people programmes, ranging from the work of the Peace Corps in the 1960s and 1970s, to the technical assistance provided by USAID today in Southeast Asia. The US has also extended assistance and training programmes on protection against pandemics, treatment of HIV/AIDS, environmental protection and good governance. There are useful areas such as water conservation, sustainable agriculture, and fire mitigation, that can bring benefits not just to single locales or countries, but have regional benefits

Such exchanges can be two-way. This is not a one way street. Each year, RSIS organises the Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO). This not only builds capabilities and promotes best practices, but also builds an international network among national security practitioners. A very high percentage of Singapore’s students in our higher education institutes take up internships or exchange programmes with partner institutions in other countries.^[9] Young people from the region continue to be attracted to the US through programmes such as the Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative (YSEALI), which aims at developing young leaders in areas such as civic engagement, entrepreneurship, and tackling global issues. The Fulbright US-ASEAN and Fulbright Visiting Researcher Programs have enabled many young scholars from the region to study at America’s leading universities but more importantly, have fostered people-to-people links and a better understanding of one another’s countries.

When pursued in a sustained manner, such interactions help build strong people-to-people connections between generations of young people in our region and beyond. These links offer countries a valuable means to project soft power, and to win hearts and minds, through good deeds and the power of ideas, in a way that the projection of military or economic might cannot achieve. But in pursuing these objectives, it is important to respect differences in historical experiences, as well as cultural and religious values, and to adopt a practical, rather than ideological, approach.

Continued Importance of An Open and Inclusive Regional Architecture

Over the past 48 years since ASEAN was founded, the ASEAN-centred regional architecture has served this region well in creating the conditions for continued peace, stability and economic growth. ASEAN has provided a neutral platform for countries both within and outside the region, not just major powers but also middle and smaller players, to discuss issues of concern, build trust and promote cooperation.

The multiple and overlapping structures of the regional architecture complement and reinforce each other. They play an important role in managing regional complexities by providing platforms for all parties to channel their efforts constructively towards promoting regional cooperation. Over the years, such platforms have brought together major powers like China, Japan, Korea, Russia, and the US at the same table to discuss regional issues, despite differences that may at times make meeting bilaterally difficult.

An open and inclusive regional architecture with ASEAN at its centre will continue to be an important precursor for peace, stability and growth for the region.

Conclusion

I have outlined several areas where there is potential to do more, to build on existing foundations and further strengthen the regional architecture, for the benefit of all countries in the region and those with an abiding interest in our region. The history of South East Asia has shown us that when we act together and are united, we can achieve peace, stability, growth and development. When we are divided, we run the risk of becoming pawns in a bigger game. Only through cooperation can we achieve the long-term positive outcomes that we desire for each of our countries, big or small, and for the region as a whole.

This requires engagement to be multi-dimensional and adapted to the circumstances in our region. It also requires the will to engage patiently and persistently, in a consistent respectful and sustained manner. To be a present and reliable partner in order to achieve long term effects and goals. The US has been an integral part of this regional architecture for the past 70 years. And we hope that the US will continue to be present in the region, as this will benefit the US, the region, and the world.

I wish everyone a productive conference. Thank you.

[1] In 2014, the IMF estimated that China had overtaken the US to be the world’s largest economy by purchasing power parity.

[2] Source: Economist (http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/10/global-trade-graphics)

[3] Source: World Trade Organisation. (https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres15_e/pr739_e.htm)

[4] Source: Ministry of Commerce, China and Xinhua. (http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ae/ag/201510/20151001126966.shtml, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-10/06/c_134686820.htm)

[5] The ADMM Plus meetings involve the ten ASEAN Member States as well as Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Russia, and the US.

[6] The five areas are maritime security, counter-terrorism, disaster management, peacekeeping operations and military medicine.

[7] The twenty Contracting Parties to ReCAAP are Australia, the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, the Kingdom of Cambodia, the People’s Republic of China, the Kingdom of Denmark, the Republic of India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, the Kingdom of the Netherlands, the Kingdom of Norway, the Republic of the Philippines, the Republic of Singapore, the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, the Kingdom of Thailand, the United Kingdom, the United States of America and the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam.

[8] http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2015/03/isis-twit... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/isis-has-built-a-global-...

[9] http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/education/how-singapores-six-publi...

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