PM Lee Hsien Loong at the Central Party School

Please scroll down for the English translation.

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李显龙总理于中共中央党校演讲
2012年9月6日
中国与世界，互荣共进

尊敬的中央党校李景田副校长

各位嘉宾，中央党校的学员以及朋友们

引言

我很高兴能够再次来到中央党校跟大家交换意见。我上次访问党校是在2005年。这七年来，世界局势发生了重大的变化。亚洲成了全球最有经济活力的区域之一。中国和印度取得快速的增长，东南亚国家也取得相当可观的发展。世界的政治经济重心进一步向东方转移。

世界各国相互联系、相互依赖的关系已变得更为密切。世界贸易急剧增长，各地金融市场也日益紧密的联系在一起。全球人口之中，每三个人，就有一个人使用互联网。现实世界中的许多活动，现在都可以在网上进行，其中包括商贸活动，消闲娱乐，建立人脉网络，甚至是进行政治动员。互联网对政治、社会、文化和经济等方面带来非常大的影响。

在这个紧密连接的世界，各国的命运和前途紧紧地交织在一起。一个国家若是出了问题，或是发生危机，往往立即殃及其他国家。在全球金融风暴期间，美国的债务危机迅速引发了一场影响深远的全球风暴。我记得在2008年访问北京期间，在酒店里观看了一部电视论坛。一位中国教授深入浅出地分析了贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)、雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭的原因，以及这两家机构如何导致金融体制的崩溃。我当时的感触是：若是十年前，这样的一部电视节目不太可能存在。十年前，国际金融体系还没那么一体化，像这样巨大的风暴不太可能发生，而当时的中国老百姓也不可能对国际金融的复杂机制这么感兴趣。

今天，我们可以肯定的说，中国是全球化的受益者。中国是世界的工厂，中国的产品在全球市场比比皆是。这样的趋势为中国引进新科技、新投资和新思维。与此同时，中国也推动了全球化的进程。十几亿中国人已经融入国际经济体系。这包括中国的工人、工程师、科学家、企业家和消费者。许许多多国家都直接感受到中国腾飞的影响。它们的经济结构，就业机会和社会状态都发生了深刻的变化。以中期和长期来说，中国的腾飞为这些国家带来巨大的利益；但是，就短期而言，中国让它们感受到莫大的竞争压力，使它们不得不调整发展战略，以便寻找一条新的出路。这个适应和调整的过程，往往是艰难和痛苦的。

然而，中国本身也正处于一个关键的转折点。我上个星期上网浏览了贵校的网址，发现了不少有关中国经济、社会和政治改革的评论文章。显然的，这些是中国举国上下关注的课题。在经济上，中国正在建立一个更有持续性的、以内需为主导的发展模式，以取代以出口为导向的现有模式。中国也正在研究如何克服人口结构老化带来的问题，并且加强社会保障，以及化解收入差距不断扩大所造成的社会矛盾。中国也在探讨政治改革和问责制的问题，以求在不损害社会的稳定与和谐的情况下，满足老百姓越来越高的要求。对任何一个国家来说，改革的力度和速度都是很难权衡的。中国地广人多，所以这是难上加难。因此，中国领导人自然最为关注这些迫切的国内问题。

中国在世界舞台上所扮演的角色

不过，对外关系对中国来说也是非常重要。在世界舞台上，中国举足轻重，外交活动也非常活跃。中国的战略影响力日益彰显，它的一举一动都受到国际的关注，它对外和对内的决策，都可能对其他国家造成影响。让我举几个例子。中国对原材料的需求左右全球市场的走势；中国贸易的顺差或逆差对国际金融系统的平衡也有影响；此外，中国的国防和安全政策也影响其他国家的战略考量。因此，中国领导人必须进行周全的考虑，内外利益都要兼顾。

中国已经不再是封闭自守、自给自足的天朝大国。今天，它是世界第二大的经济体，也是一个贸易大国。它需要一个开放的、兼容的和公平的全球贸易体系，才能继续繁荣昌盛。它也需要和平稳定的国际环境和良好的外交关系，才能集中精力搞好经济。当今世界的各种重大问题，无论是气候变化、多哈回合贸易谈判，或是防止核武器的扩散，都必须有中国参与，才有望解决。

中国近几十年来顺利地融入国际经济体系，并且在一个稳定与和平的国际环境中，取得空前快速的增长。中国意识到它有必要捍卫、加强与改进这个国际秩序，因为这符合中国的利益。更具体来说，捍卫国际公法、确保国际体制对大国和小国都一视同仁，同时加深各国之间的互信与尊重，也都对中国有利。事实上，中国已经做到这点。譬如，中国加入世界贸易组织，并且遵守其解决贸易纠纷的规则和判决。这些具体行动可以彰显中国一贯坚持的立场 — 那就是中国永不称霸，并且会在友好、平等与互惠互利的基础上与其他国家建立关系。

基于中国利人利己的外交立场，新加坡向来主张中国的和平发展对世界和我们是有利的。新加坡一直以来也以实际的行动支持中国的发展。一个繁荣稳定的中国，将更加有利于世界和亚洲的和平。

中美关系

在中国的对外关系当中，与美国的关系是重中之重。这对双方，乃至全世界，都是最重要的双边关系。

在可预见的未来，美国仍将是主导世界的超级强国。尽管美国目前面对非常棘手的问题，但它并不是一个正走向衰落的国家。美国社会有巨大的韧性与创造力，它吸引了世界各地的人才，包括许多中国和亚洲的人才。这些人才往往能够顺利地融入美国的社会、企业界和学术界，对美国做出很大的贡献。历来获颁诺贝尔科学奖的华裔人士共有八人，他们先后都成为美国公民。

中美关系融洽与否，对整个区域，都有影响。新加坡希望中美关系顺利发展，因为这关系到我们自身的利益。我们和中美两国都是朋友，不愿意看到两国关系恶化，更不愿意被迫在两者之间做出取舍。新加坡的影响力有限，但是我们尽可能通过言语和行动，从旁促进中美关系。

中国和美国有许多共同利益。中国依赖美国的市场与技术。对美国而言，中国则是许多美国跨国企业的重要输出市场和制造基地。中国是美国最大的债权国，当然不希望美国经济出现问题。美国国务卿希拉里2009年在中国访问时说，中美应该同舟共济、通力合作、避免冲突。新加坡赞同这样的说法。

然而，中美关系是多层面的，既有互惠互利的一面，也有互相竞争的一面。两国偶尔发生摩擦，在所难免。在人权和民主的课题方面，两国的观点截然不同。最根本的是，中国的发展意味着世界格局的重大转变。历史显示，新兴大国的崛起往往引发矛盾和冲突。几年前，中国电视纪录片《大国崛起》也让我们看到，中国思想界领袖知道应该以史为鉴，避免重蹈他人的覆辙。

此外，中美两国在处理双边关系时，还必须顾虑国内的政治压力以及民族主义的情绪。一些美国人对中国的快速发展感到焦虑：美国的精英对美国是否能够继续影响世界忧心忡忡，普通的工人则为自己的工作和前途担惊受怕。

中国方面，一些人怀疑美国意图拖慢中国的发展步伐。中国年轻的一代生长于文化大革命之后，是改革开放政策的受惠者，对中国所取得的成就感到自豪，这是可以理解的。他们当中，有的相信中国在争取自己应有的国际地位时应该更理直气壮，应该放弃邓小平倡议的“韬光养晦”的低调作风。我们可在互联网上看到这样的言论。

中美双方在处理彼此关系的变化时，需要更有睿智，谨慎行事。两国必须加深互信，化解猜疑，才不会误解彼此的用意，采取失策之举。因此，我们对中美两国扩大各层级的对话表示欢迎。同时，国防与安全部门的官员保持非正式联系，比如参加新加坡每年主办的香格里拉对话，有助于加深彼此的了解和互信。

在中美关系中，台湾是重要的因素之一。长期以来，两岸关系是中美关系当中潜伏的导火线。近年来两岸关系显著改善，特别是在2008年国民党当选之后。现在，“三通”已经成为事实，台湾民众普遍希望两岸关系保持平稳，这正面影响了台湾各政党的立场。这些正面的发展令亚太国家都松了一口气。

然而，大家必须接受一项事实：美国仍然是亚太地区的一个重要国家。中国领导人表态欢迎美国参与亚太地区的事务。中国国务委员兼国防部长梁光烈今年五月访问美国时也说，亚太地区非常辽阔，完全可以容纳中美这样两个国情迥异、战略需求和利益不同的大国。

新加坡相信美国继续参与区域事务，能对亚洲的繁荣与安全做出贡献。美国在亚洲有它正当的外交和经济利益，它在亚洲所扮演的角色并非任何其他国家所能取代的。这不仅仅在于美国的军事与经济力量，其中也存在历史因素。在二战结束后的六十多年里，美国在亚太地区创造了一个安全稳定的国际环境，这有利各国进行经济和社会建设。有鉴于此，许多亚太国家都希望美国继续扮演这个角色，以促进区域的和平与稳定。

尽管中美关系偶尔会有紧张的时候，两国关系已经日渐成熟。双方既能共同处理了一些问题，也能维持建设性的合作关系，例如朝鲜半岛的无核化的战略性挑战，以及最近的陈光诚事件，都能看到这点。中美两国领导人都清楚知道他们有着重要的共同利益。中国领导人能够跨越眼前与短期的双边困难，用长远的眼光看待两国关系。在美国，无论竞选总统时候选人说了些什么，新上任的总统都很快意识到，与中国维持建设性合作关系是十分重要的。尽管一些美国人希望把中国改造得跟美国一样，美国领导人知道这是一厢情愿的想法。

美国的有识之士，无论是共和党的，或是民主党的，都明白任何围堵中国的尝试都注定要失败。21世纪的中美关系不能与冷战时期的美苏关系相提并论。美国和苏联的贸易微不足道，但是两国拥有大量的核武器，互相牵制，这就是所谓的“核威慑”。而今天，中国和美国之间的关系密不可分，你中有我，我中有你；经济上的相互依赖成为新的稳定因素。美国如果企图围堵和阻拦中国的发展，很难避免自我伤害。况且，欧洲或亚洲国家都不会支持这个不明智的举动。新加坡外长今年初在华盛顿演讲中已经阐明这一点，美国官方人员也认可这个观点。最终，中国和美国必须发展出一套符合时势、有利于双方的相处之道。

中国在区域所扮演的角色

除了良好的中美关系之外，一个稳定繁荣的亚洲也符合中国的战略利益。欣欣向荣的周边国家，可以成为中国相辅相成的合作伙伴。整个地区保持平静与安全的状态，才能让中国一心一意谋求发展，不必为外界的局势操心。

亚洲的稳定繁荣，有赖于本区域所有国家紧密合作。这样的地区合作框架正在逐渐形成。亚细安（东盟）是这个框架的基石，并且带头构建了几个多边合作机制，包括每年召开的东盟加三会议和东亚峰会。重要的是，我们不应该在亚洲建立排外的壁垒，而应该建立对外开放的区域框架，与太平洋另一端的北美和拉丁美洲国家建立紧密的联系。因此亚太经合组织是个重要的机制。我们明天将到俄罗斯的海参崴出席亚太经合组织峰会（APEC）。

这些平台可以让各国针对各种政治、经贸和安全问题交换意见，并且推展一些具体的合作计划，包括一系列的自由贸易协定。

东盟作为东亚区域合作的核心，对建立和维护有效的区域架构至关重要。所有大国都愿意让东盟扮演居中领导的角色，并且协调各方的对话和合作。然而，东盟必须是个团结、有效与中立的组织，才能扮演好这个角色。东盟必须跟各个大国维持良好的关系，当然也包括中国。东盟成员国之间一旦出现分化或陷入混乱，最终将迫使各个成员国在大国之间选边站，使东南亚成为各方角逐势力、互相竞夺的新场地。到时，谁都不是赢家。

我很高兴看到中国与东盟积极地发展关系。中国是东盟最大的贸易伙伴，而东盟则是中国第三大贸易伙伴。东盟与中国的自由贸易协定是在2000年启动的，当时中国的总理是朱镕基。这个协定的签署是个大胆的决定，所考虑的不仅仅是经济的利益，协定也凸显了双方要建立密切关系的战略思想。在贸易之外，中国也与东盟国家携手开拓多个领域的合作，包括基础设施的发展、能源开采、文化和医药保健等。所有东盟成员国都期望继续扩大与中国的合作关系。

南中国海的问题

然而，尽管中国与东盟的关系不断加深，双方在一些议题上也还是会存有分歧：有时是中国与整个东盟之间，有时则是中国与东盟个别的成员国之间。南中国海的领土争议就是一个例子。今天，让我比较深入讨论这个热门课题，希望大家能更了解新加坡的立场，以及我们处理外交问题的基本考量。

大家都知道，主权争端往往复杂而不容易化解。任何一方都不可能轻易让步。如果一国的政府主动放弃声索主权，它必定为此付出高昂的政治代价。因此，南中国海重叠的主权声索不可能在短期内解决。有关的国家应当负责任的处理它们之间的争端，避免让紧张的局势升级，或者引起对抗，这样才不会损害这个区域的国际地位。

新加坡在南中国海问题上，立场明确与一贯。我们不是主权声索国，在领土的争议上既不偏袒任何一方，也无从判断谁是谁非。不过，南中国海的争议确实涉及新加坡的一些关键利益。

第一，从新加坡这个小国的角度来看，依据国际法规，和平地解决国际争端的做法，最能保障我们的利益和安全。我们因此认为南中国海的争议，以及相关的海洋资源权益问题，应该根据国际法，包括联合国海洋法公约（UNCLOS），以和平的方式给予解决。

第二，国际贸易是新加坡的经济命脉，我们的对外贸易总额是国内生产总值（GDP）的3倍。因此，航运自由是我们的另一个关键利益。新加坡的海运只能通过两条航道，那就是马六甲海峡和南中国海。所以，南中国海是我们赖以发展和生存的国际航道，具有重要的战略意义。无论有关的争端解决与否，这个航道都必须是通畅无阻的。许多国家的船只都依赖南中国海的航道，我相信它们对这个问题也有同感。

第三，作为东南亚的一个小国，东盟对新加坡至关紧要。新加坡的安全与生存有赖于一个和平与稳定的东南亚。而东南亚的稳定则有赖于一个团结的东盟。我们十国必须精诚团结，才有能力在国际舞台上发挥影响力，让国际社会听到我们的声音，从而保障和争取我们共同的利益。因此，如果东盟被削弱，我们十国就少了合作的平台，而新加坡的安全和影响力也势必受到损害。

南中国海问题是东盟面对的一个重要事件。因此，我们认为东盟在这个问题上必须扮演一定的角色，并且针对争端表明看法。如果东盟讳而不言，它的公信力必将受到损害。东盟不应该偏袒任何一方，而是必须采取和表明一个中立的和具有前瞻性的立场，同时鼓励各方以和平的方式解决问题。印度尼西亚最近提出的 “东盟关于解决南中国海问题六点原则”，已经获得东盟的支持。这是积极的发展。我们也希望东盟与中国可以尽早启动“南中国海行为准则”的讨论。

在南中国海问题上，除了主权和领土的问题，东盟和中国有更大的利益需要考虑。很多国家正密切地注意本区域局势的发展。他们将观察中国如何处理和邻国之间棘手的双边问题，进而探讨中国发展对世界的意义。 他们也会研究东盟是否经得起考验，是否有能力应付棘手以及涉及切身利益的多边问题。总的来说，中国和东盟的关系既深又广，而且基本上是友好的。我们不应该让个别的问题影响双方整体上正面积极的关系。

新加坡和中国的关系

我坦率地对中国作为一个大国，所面对的挑战与机遇说出我的看法。我也谈到东南亚国家必须寻找新的立足点，以适应中国的发展所带来的挑战。作为一个小国，新加坡以实事求是的态度看待世界。我们的生存之道，是以自己国家的利益为依据，采取独立的外交政策。我们珍惜同中国和其他国家的友好关系。然而，新加坡处于一个独特的地缘政治环境，人口以华族居多。周边国家的华族则占少数，而且在政治上处于一个敏感和微妙的地位。因此，我们必须清楚地让世人知道新加坡是名副其实的主权国，有着独立的外交的立场。我们保持中立和客观，我们的意见才有公信力。一个有公信力的新加坡，对我们的伙伴和其他友好国家才是最有价值的。

新中两国的关系源远流长，在多方面开展了建设性和互惠互利的合作。邓小平在1978年访问新加坡。我们两国在1990年正式建交，但是两国早在这之前就已经互相来往。

改革开放以来，中国发生翻天覆地的改变。同时，新加坡也经历不少变化。两国的社会情况还在持续演变，两国的合作关系也跟着调整。1994年，我们一起开发了苏州工业园区，依据中国的国情，选择性的采纳了新加坡的工业发展和城市发展经验。我很高兴看到苏州工业园的模式得到许多中国省市的认可和采用。这个合作项目的成功已经远远超越我们预期的目标。

当中国开始关注生活质量和环保的问题时，我们在2007年开展天津生态城的计划。近年来，两国的合作项目比较着重软件的转移。譬如，我们在广东省推动知识城的计划，在成都则联合开发“新加坡四川创新科技园”。几天前，我先后访问了成都和天津，对两个园区的计划和进展留下了深刻的印象。今年7月，两国同意中国将授权在新加坡的一家中资银行為人民币清算银行，这有助于推进人民币国际化的进程。今晚，温家宝总理与我将一起见证另一个协议的签订仪式。我们将在吉林建立一个食品区，以新加坡食品安全体系为模板，建立一个食品加工基地。

我们应该继续提升两国的合作伙伴关系，随时跟着环境的改变而进行调整。新加坡已经进入一个全新的发展阶段。我们将提升经济和生活的素质。我们的社会和政治体制也必须与时并进。世界变化的脚步很快，我们是摸着石头过河，一步一步地向前走。中国也面对着一些跟新加坡相似的挑战，当然你们的规模和难度比我们大得多。

新加坡目前面对的一个问题是：如何在经济增长和社会发展之间取得平衡。我们希望经济欣欣向荣，但是也希望建立一个和谐的、具有包容性的社会。在新中双边合作联合委员会（JCBC）的框架下，两国将对社会管理这个课题交换意见，这是我们两国合作研究的新项目。

另一个新课题则是互联网和新媒体带来的机会和挑战。中国有数亿网民，新加坡人则几乎人人都是网民。我们都知道互联网的好处，但是它最终将对我们的社会和文化造成怎样的影响，还有待观察和研究。今年五月，在中共中央组织部部长李源潮和新加坡副总理张志贤联合主持的中新领袖论坛上，双方就针对这个课题进行了很有意义的交流和讨论。

新中两国还有广阔的合作空间。新加坡认为中国的发展经验有很多值得借鉴的地方。我希望新加坡的经验和体制也继续对中国有参考的价值。

结论

今天，我着重讨论比较长期的与广泛的战略性课题，我希望所提的一些看法能给大家做个参考。

国际媒体关注的往往是中国的经济和政治热点新闻，追踪的是“软着陆”或是“硬着陆”的经济走向，或者是股市的起落。我不知道明天上海股市的表现。但是，我有信心，中国中期和长期的展望是良好的，光明的。

我也相信，中国政府和人民有决心，也有魄力去克服眼前的种种挑战和困难，并且能够充分把握发展的机遇，最终找到一条阔步前进的新道路。我也相信中国的成功将为世界和亚洲带来另一个繁荣与和平的时代。我因此祝愿中国年年进步，再创新的高峰；也希望新中两国保持长久和紧密的合作关系和友谊。

谢谢！

* * * * *

English translation of PM Lee Hsien Loong's speech at the Central Party School

“China and the World – Prospering and Progressing Together”

Excellency Li Jingtian
Executive Vice President of the Central Party School
Participants of the Central Party School
Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen

INTRODUCTION

I am happy to be back at the Central Party School. I last spoke here in 2005. In the seven years since then, the world has changed significantly. Asia has become one of the most vibrant regions in the world. China and India have made rapid progress, while Southeast Asia has not done badly. The centre of gravity of world affairs has shifted further eastwards.

The world has also become much more inter-connected and inter-dependent. World trade has grown rapidly, while financial markets are much more interlinked. The internet now connects more than one-third of humanity. Many real life activities now happen in cyberspace, whether it is business, entertainment, social networking, or even political organisation. This has transformed governments, societies, cultures and economies.

In this hyper-connected world, the interests of individual countries are closely intertwined with others. Problems in one country can quickly spread to others. During the Global Financial Crisis, problems in US debt markets triggered worldwide consequences. Visiting Beijing in 2008, I watched a Chinese academic on a talk show explain in detail how Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers failed, and caused the systemic collapse. Watching such a programme in China would have been unimaginable even a decade earlier. First, because the international financial system was not so globally integrated, a crisis on such a global scale was most unlikely. Second because no one would have thought that the Chinese public would have such a sophisticated interest in the complicated details of international financial markets.

China has benefitted from globalisation. Chinese workers and factories serve consumers and markets around the world. China has gained access to new technologies, investments and ideas. At the same time, China has catalysed globalisation too. More than one billion Chinese are joining the international economy, not just as workers but as engineers, scientists, entrepreneurs and consumers. Many countries are feeling the impact of China’s rise. Their industries, jobs and societies are undergoing far-reaching changes. The long-term benefits of China’s rise are enormous, but so are the short-term challenges of adjusting to the new competitive environment. The transition will be difficult and painful.

But China is now at a critical juncture. The Central Party School’s website contains many articles debating China’s economic, social and political reforms. You are clearly seized with these issues. China needs to upgrade its economy to continue improving people’s lives. It has to restructure from an export-led economy to a more sustainable, demand-driven one. It must prepare for a rapidly ageing population, strengthen social safety nets and address rising income inequality. It must also undertake political reforms to meet rising public expectations for accountability, while maintaining social order and stability. How to implement such reforms, and how quickly, are vigorously debated. These are serious and complex challenges for any country, let alone one the size of China. It is therefore natural that China’s leaders are preoccupied with these domestic priorities.

CHINA’S ROLE IN THE WORLD

However, China’s external interests are equally important. China has become a major player in the global system, highly interdependent with the rest of the world. China’s growing weight means that its every action is scrutinised internationally, and its foreign and domestic policies invariably affect other countries. For example, China’s demand for natural resources moves global markets; China’s trade balance affects the international financial system; China’s security policies influence other countries’ strategic calculations. Hence, it is in China’s own interests to take into account the impact of its policies on other countries.

China is no longer an isolated, self-sufficient Middle Kingdom. It is the world’s second largest economy and a major trading nation. It depends on an open, inclusive and fair global trade system to thrive. It needs a stable external environment, and good relations with other countries, so that it can focus on economic development. It is such a major player that no global issue can be resolved without China’s participation, be it climate change, the Doha Round or nuclear non-proliferation.

China’s integration into the international system has been smooth, considering how large China’s impact has been. China has benefitted greatly from a stable and peaceful global environment. It is in China’s interests to uphold this international order, in particular the international rule of law, and a global system that is relevant and fair to all nations big and small. China has done so, for example by joining the WTO and abiding by its rulings in trade disputes. This reinforces what China has repeatedly affirmed – that it will not seek hegemony, and wishes for amicable, equal, win-win relations with others.

That is why Singapore believes that China’s peaceful development will benefit Singapore and the world, and has supported China’s development in tangible ways. A prosperous, stable China, well integrated into the world community, is a major force for peace, prosperity and stability in Asia and the world.

CHINA-US RELATIONS

Among China’s external relationships, none is more important than that with the US. This is the most important bilateral relationship for both parties, and for the entire world.

The US will remain the dominant superpower for the foreseeable future. It is currently facing some very difficult problems, but it is not a nation in decline. The US is an enormously resilient and creative society, which attracts and absorbs talent from all over the world, including many from China and the rest of Asia. These new arrivals often integrate successfully into the US and make significant contributions to their society, academia or business. All eight Nobel Prize winners in science who are of Chinese descent either were or subsequently became American citizens. We should never under-estimate the US’ capacity to reinvigorate and reinvent itself.

Our whole region, including Singapore, will be affected by how China-US relations develop. We hope China-US relations flourish, because we are friends of both countries. We do not wish to see their relations deteriorate, or be forced to choose one or the other. Singapore’s influence is modest, but we will do what we can to foster good relations, through our statements and actions.

China and the US share many interests. China relies on US markets and technology. For many US companies, China is a key export market and manufacturing base. China is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury securities, and hence does not wish to see the US economy in trouble. While visiting China in 2009, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that both sides are in the same boat and should therefore work together, and avoid a clash. Singapore agrees with this view.

Nevertheless, China-US relations are multi-faceted. Although there are obvious areas for cooperation, there are also areas where the two compete. From time to time, friction is inevitable. On human rights and democracy, the two countries have very different perspectives. Most fundamentally, China’s development represents a major shift in the balance of power. History has shown that the rise of new powers often leads to uncertainty and conflict. The Chinese TV series “The Rise of Great Powers” several years ago shows that Chinese thought leaders understand the need to learn from history and avoid repeating past mistakes.

Furthermore, in managing their relations, both China and the US have to take into account domestic political pressures and nationalist sentiments. Some Americans are anxious about China’s rise. The elite are concerned about America’s influence in the world, while ordinary workers worry about their jobs and futures.

On the Chinese side, some quarters suspect the US of wanting to hold China back. Younger Chinese, having grown up after the Cultural Revolution, have benefitted from China’s liberalisation and are understandably proud of China’s achievements. Some of them believe that China should be less accommodating, and should abandon Deng Xiaoping’s dictum that China should adopt a low profile internationally (韬光养晦). Such views are often seen online.

Therefore both China and the US have to manage this shift in their relationship wisely and prudently. They have to strengthen mutual trust and confidence, so that they do not misread the other side’s intentions and make missteps. We therefore welcome the expansion of dialogues at all levels between the two countries. Informal contacts between defence and security officials, such as during their participation at the Shangri-la Dialogue that Singapore hosts every year, help foster mutual trust and understanding.

One important factor in US-China relations is Taiwan. Cross-strait relations have long been a potential flash point between China and the US. Cross-strait relations have improved markedly in recent years, especially since the Kuomintang government was elected in 2008. Today, the "Three Links" (三通) have become a reality. Taiwanese voters support more stable cross-strait relations, which has in turn influenced the positions of Taiwanese political parties. Many Asia-Pacific countries welcome these positive developments.

The US is and will remain an Asia-Pacific power. Chinese leaders have welcomed the US’ presence in the Asia-Pacific. On a visit to the US in May, National Defence Minister GEN Liang Guanglie acknowledged that the Asia-Pacific was big enough to accommodate both the US and China, even though both countries have very different national circumstances, strategic needs and interests.

Singapore believes that the US’ continued presence in the region contributes to Asia’s prosperity and security. The US has legitimate long-term interests in Asia, and plays a role in Asia which no other country can. This is not just because of its military or economic strength, but for historical reasons. In the 60 years since the end of World War II, the US presence has created a peaceful environment which enabled the region to thrive. This is why many Asia-Pacific countries hope that the US continues to contribute to regional peace and stability.

Despite occasional tensions, the US-China relationship has matured. Both sides are maintaining the overall relationship while managing problems big and small, from denuclearising the Korean peninsula to the Chen Guangcheng incident. Leaders from both sides recognise their major shared interests. The Chinese leadership is able to look beyond immediate and transient bilateral problems and take a long-term perspective. Successive US Presidents have quickly learnt the importance of maintaining a constructive relationship with China, regardless of what was said during their election campaigns. They accept that the US cannot expect to remake China in its own image, much as some Americans would like to.

Thoughtful Americans, both Democrat and Republican, also understand that any attempt to contain China is doomed to fail. US-China relations in the 21st century cannot be compared to ties between the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Trade between the US and Soviet Union was negligible, and nuclear deterrence was the primary stabilising factor. Today, China and the US are profoundly intertwined, and their relationship is stabilised by mutual economic dependence. The US cannot hold China back without hurting itself at the same time. Neither would European or Asian countries join such a misguided effort to contain China. My Foreign Minister stated this view clearly in a widely reported speech in Washington earlier this year, a view which many American officials accepted. Ultimately, both China and the US must develop a new modus vivendi that reflects current realities and benefits both sides.

CHINA’S ROLE IN THE REGION

Besides forging good relations with the US, China also has a strategic interest in a stable and prosperous Asia. A thriving neighbourhood will be a valuable partner in China’s development, and a source of investments and raw materials. A tranquil security environment will enable China to focus on its development goals, and not be distracted by regional tensions.

A stable and prosperous Asia requires closer cooperation amongst the stakeholders in the region. Such a framework for regional cooperation is gradually forming. ASEAN is the foundation of this. It anchors the larger regional security architecture including the ASEAN+3 grouping and the East Asia Summit (EAS). At the same time, it is important that Asia does not become a closed bloc. It needs to keep an open architecture and maintain close links across the Pacific with the Northern American and Latin American countries. Hence the significance of APEC, whose leaders are meeting this weekend in Vladivostok.

These groupings bring Asia-Pacific countries together to discuss and cooperate on many issues, including economic integration, political-security developments, and functional cooperation. They have also paved the way for a network of free trade agreements among themselves.

ASEAN centrality is key to the regional framework. All the major powers are comfortable to let ASEAN take the lead, and to be the fulcrum of the discussions and cooperation. But this requires an ASEAN that is united, effective, and friendly with all the major powers, including China. A divided or discredited ASEAN will lead to a scenario where the member states are forced to choose between major powers, and Southeast Asia becomes a new arena for rivalries and contention. No one wins.

I am happy that China has been engaging ASEAN actively. China is ASEAN’s largest trading partner while ASEAN is China’s third largest trading partner. ASEAN and China have an FTA which was launched in 2000, when Zhu Rongji was Premier. This bold initiative was motivated not only by economic benefits but also the desire of both sides to forge a strategic partnership. China also cooperates with ASEAN countries on a broad agenda, including infrastructure development (under the ASEAN Connectivity Masterplan), energy, culture and public health. All ASEAN members welcome China’s engagement and are keen to expand our mutually beneficial partnership.

THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Nevertheless, despite the deepening relations between China and ASEAN, issues will inevitably arise from time to time, either between China and ASEAN as a whole, or between China and individual ASEAN member nations. One such issue is the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. I will elaborate on this current topic, in the hope that you will understand better Singapore’s position, and our basic considerations in foreign policy issues.

Sovereignty disputes are complex and hard to resolve. No side can easily abandon their claims without high political costs. The many overlapping claims by multiple claimants in the South China Sea are unlikely to be resolved any time soon. Hence in Singapore’s view, the involved parties must manage the disputes responsibly. All sides should avoid escalating tensions or precipitating confrontations that will affect the international standing of the region.

Singapore has taken a clear and consistent position on the South China Sea issue. We are not a claimant country, take no sides in any of the territorial disputes nor can we judge the merits of the various claims. However, Singapore does have certain critical interests at stake.

First, as a very small country, we have a fundamental interest in the peaceful settlement of international disputes in accordance with international law. Hence we believe the disputes in the South China Sea over territorial sovereignty and maritime resource rights should be resolved peacefully and in accordance with international law, including UNCLOS.

Second, trade is the lifeblood of our economy. Our foreign trade is three times our GDP. Freedom of navigation is therefore a fundamental interest, especially along our sea lanes of communications. We have only two: the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea. Therefore the South China Sea is strategically important for our survival and development. However the South China Sea disputes play out, freedom of navigation must be maintained. Ships of many nations use the South China Sea, so I am sure these countries would share Singa¬pore’s concern on this point.

Third, as a small Southeast Asian country, ASEAN is critical to Singapore. Singapore’s security depends on a peaceful and stable Southeast Asia, which in turn depends on a cohesive ASEAN. ASEAN must remain united to be able to exercise influence on the international stage, to have our voices heard, and to secure and advance our common interests. If ASEAN is weakened, Singapore’s security and influence will be diminished.

Turning to recent events, the South China Sea is a major issue in the heart of ASEAN’s own region. For ASEAN not to address it would severely damage its credibility. ASEAN must not take sides on the various claims, but it has to take and state a position which is neutral, forward-looking, and encourages the peaceful resolution of issues. The 6-point principles on the South China Sea recently proposed by Indonesia does that. ASEAN has accepted these principles. This is a positive development. We also hope that ASEAN and China will start talks on a Code of Conduct (COC) soon.

ASEAN and China have wider interests at stake in the South China Sea issue too, besides sovereignty and maritime rights. Many countries are watching us closely. They will read how China deals with difficult bilateral problems with its neighbours as a sign of what China’s rise means for the world. They will scrutinise ASEAN to see if it can deal with difficult issues effectively. ASEAN and China must not allow this isolated issue to affect their overall positive relationship. The account between China and ASEAN is large and overwhelmingly positive, and should remain so.

CHINA-SINGAPORE PARTNERSHIP

I have spoken candidly about the opportunities and challenges facing China, and facing the region as it adjusts to a growing China. As a small country, Singapore takes the world as it is. We pursue an independent foreign policy that is underpinned by our national interests. We value our close ties with China and other countries. However, Singapore is in a unique geopolitical position. We have a Chinese majority population. We are surrounded by neighbours who are majority non-Chinese, with Chinese minorities whose position is often politically delicate. This is why Singapore always needs to be seen to be acting independently on its own behalf. As an independent, objective voice, we can speak with credibility, and will be most useful to our friends and partners.

I am happy that Singapore and China have had a long, productive and mutually beneficial relationship. It started long before we established formal diplomatic relations in 1990, and even before Deng Xiaoping visited Singapore in 1978.

Over the last few decades, China has been completely transformed by the reform and liberalisation policy, and Singapore too has changed greatly. Both continue to evolve. Our partnership too has evolved with our needs and circumstances. In 1994, we launched the Suzhou Industrial Park (SIP), adapting Singapore’s experience with integrated industrial development and urban planning to China’s context. I am happy that many Chinese cities and provinces have since implemented ideas from the SIP. This project has far exceeded our expectations.

When China started to focus on sustainable development, we embarked on the Tianjin Eco-city project in 2007. In more recent projects we are emphasising the software aspects of development, for example in the Guangzhou Knowledge City and the Singapore-Sichuan Hi-Tech Innovation Park (HTIP). I visited the Tianjin Eco-city and HTIP this week, and was impressed by their progress. This July, Singapore and China agreed to designate a Chinese bank in Singapore as an RMB clearing bank. This will benefit companies doing business in China, and help to promote international use of the RMB. This evening, Premier Wen Jiabao and I will witness the signing of agreements to establish a Food Zone in Jilin. The Jilin Food Zone will be a premium food zone, anchored by a Food Safety System modeled after Singapore’s systems and processes.

Our partnership must continue to develop. Singapore is in a new phase of development. We seek to upgrade our economy and quality of life, and adapt our society and political system for a different world. The world is in flux, and we are feeling our way forward. China is similarly in transition. Some of its challenges are similar to Singapore’s, albeit on a much larger scale.

One issue facing Singapore is balancing between economic growth and social development, so as to create not just a prosperous economy but also a harmonious and inclusive society. China too is focussed on this challenge. Under the framework of the Singapore-China Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation (JCBC), we are broadening our cooperation into social management.

Another issue is the impact of the internet and social media. China has hundreds of millions of netizens, while Singapore is a very wired country. The advantages of the internet are clear, but its eventual impact on our societies and culture remains to be seen. The 3rd China-Singapore Leadership Forum in May, led by Central Organisation Department Minister Li Yuanchao and my Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean, shared experiences on managing the social media.

There are other parallels between our two countries. Singapore hopes to learn from China’s approaches and ideas, and hopes that our experience can continue to be interesting and relevant to China.

CONCLUSION

I have shared my thoughts on the long-term opportunities and challenges facing China, and its relations with other countries.

The international media tends to focus on China’s political and economic issues of the day: whether its economy is poised for a "soft landing" or "hard landing", or whether share prices are going up or down. I cannot predict whether the Shanghai stock exchange will close higher or lower tomorrow, but I am confident about China’s long-term prospects.

I believe that the Chinese government and people are determined to overcome its various challenges. I have every confidence that China will find its own path to success. I am also confident that China’s success will usher in an extended period of peace and prosperity for itself, Asia and the entire world. I therefore wish China well and look forward to many more years of close cooperation between Singapore and China.

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